Christmas updates to shine light on UK retail prospects

The prospects for consumer spending and the broader British economy will be in focus next week when a host of retailers, including Marks & Spencer and Tesco, report Christmas sales figures.
Many store groups found the going tough last year as consumers fretted over job security and a squeeze on incomes.
With wage rises failing to match inflation and another round of government spending cuts slated for 2013, retailers were expected to strike a downbeat tone on the outlook and say growth will be reliant on internal initiatives.
While grocers traditionally cope better in tough times thanks to their focus on essential goods, they are finding growth hard to come by even as they expand their offering into homewares and other non-food offerings.
Analysts think No. 4 grocer Wm Morrison Supermarkets will, on Monday, post the worst of the Christmas figures out of the food retailers reporting next week.
Sales at Morrison stores open over a year, excluding fuel, were seen down about 2 percent. That would follow a fiscal third-quarter fall of 2.1 percent and partly reflect the lack of an online presence and minimal convenience store presence.
Indeed, the retail sector's best Christmas performers - all helped by a strong online presence - may have reported already.
John Lewis - Britain's biggest department store group, and sister company Waitrose - an upmarket grocer, have both reported record Christmas sales, while clothing retailer Next posted a solid outcome and raised profit guidance.
MARKET LEADER
For retail market leader Tesco, which updates on Thursday, analysts forecast like-for-like sales, excluding fuel and VAT sales tax, to grow 0.5-1.5 percent in its home market, having fallen 0.6 percent in its third quarter.
That said, Tesco is up against a weak comparative - a dismal Christmas performance in 2011 resulted in its first profit warning in 20 years and a move to spend 1 billion pounds ($1.6 billion) on a recovery plan.
While the world's No. 3 retailer may show some progress in its home market, its overseas problems are mounting. Though the group has flagged an exit from the United States, in South Korea - its biggest overseas market, legislation allowing local governments to impose shorter trading hours is hurting. Also, trade in eastern Europe is being hit by euro zone instability.
Sainsbury, Britain's No. 3 grocer, has guided to second-half like-for-like sales growth similar to the 1.7 percent in its first half. For its third-quarter update, expected Wednesday, analysts forecast like-for-like growth of about 0.9 percent.
DISCIPLINED
Though pre-Christmas promotional activity among clothing groups was widespread it appears to have been less severe than in 2011.
"Anecdotally, it was hugely more disciplined than last year," Simon Wolfson, chief executive of Next - Britain's second-biggest clothing retailer, told Reuters on Thursday.
That should bode well for margins at Marks & Spencer, Britain's largest clothing retailer, which updates on Thursday.
Analysts expected M&S to report a 1.5 percent drop in fiscal third-quarter general merchandise sales from British stores open at least a year. That would be a small improvement on a second-quarter decline of 1.8 percent.
However, like-for-like food sales were seen up 0.5 percent, less than the 1.5 percent rise in the previous period.

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Has Obama Been Good for Millionaires?

The question of whether Americans are better off than they were four years ago depends, of course, on the American.
For the 12 million unemployed, the answer is most certainly no.
But for many of America's millionaires, the answer may be more affirmative.
A new study from WealthInsight, the London-based wealth-research and data firm (and yes, they are non-partisan), showed that the United States added 1.1 million millionaires between Jan. 1, 2009 and the end of 2011, the latest period measured. There were 5.1 million millionaires in America at the end of 2011, compared with around 4 million at the end of 2008.
That works out to more than 1,000 millionaires a day under the Obama administration. (They defined millionaires as people with total net worth of $1 million or more, excluding primary residence).
(Read more: Rich Will Spend More Under Romney: Poll)
"It's true that Obama has been good for millionaires, at least in absolute terms," said Andrew Amoils, analyst at WealthInsight. "He certainly hasn't been bad for millionaires."
Amoils said that quantitative easing and financial bailouts especially helped the finance sector, which accounts for the largest share of millionaires. It also helped that markets recovered in 2009.
The timeframe is worth noting. Measured against the 2007 peak, when 5.27 million Americans had a net worth of at least $1 million, the nation lost 165,360 millionaires. Their combined wealth is down six percent, to $18.8 trillion from a peak of more than $20 trillion in 2007.
We don't know how 2012 will turn out, though if stock markets continue to strengthen, the millionaire count for 2012 is likely to increase. Wealth Insight says the number of millionaires in America will grow to more than six million by 2016, and their combined fortunes will jump 25 percent over the same period.
(Read more: Millionaires Give Nine Percent of Income to Charity)
Where did all the millionaires come from between 2008 and 2011?
Mainly from retail, tech and finance -- and in both blue and red states.
Of the sectors adding the largest number of people worth $30 million or more, the retail, fashion, and luxury goods sector ranked first. That was followed by energy and utilities, then tech, telecoms and finance. Transportation and construction saw the biggest drops.
The number of people worth $30 million or more grew 26 percent in Connecticut since 2008, 20 percent in Kansas, 12 percent in Michigan, showing that the wealth creation was nationwide.

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Obama Wins 2012 Election: Why Your Taxes Are Going Up

When President Obama and the new Congress begin to tackle important legislation and federal policy in January, one of the key issues will be how to reform America's byzantine tax code.
Obama campaigned on a platform to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans, declaring that millionaires and billionaires need to "pay their fair share." The president proposed the highly controversial "Buffett Rule," which would make sure those individuals earning more than $1 million a year would pay at least 30% of their income in federal taxes.
Related: Do the Rich Have a Moral Obligation to Pay Higher Taxes? Gov. Jerry Brown Says 'Yes'
The top individual tax rate is currently 35% but few U.S. households and individuals actually pay that much; various tax deductions and loopholes reduce one's tax burden.
According to the Obama campaign, the richest 400 taxpayers in 2008 (who each made more than $110 million that year) paid an average income tax rate of just 18%. In 2009 over 20,000 U.S. households with more than $1 million in income paid a federal tax rate of less than 15%.
Obama has vowed to raise the top income tax rate for individuals to 39.6% and let the Bush-era tax breaks end for the highest income earners. The majority of Americans — those who are lower to middle class — could also see a 2% tax increase if Congress allows the temporary payroll tax holiday to expire at the end of the year.
Related: Here's Why Your Taxes Are Going Up 2% Next Year: Just Explain It
Nearly half of voters support raising taxes on incomes over $250,000, according to Tuesday night's exit polls.
Len Burman, a professor of public affairs at Syracuse University and a co-founder of the bipartisan Tax Policy Center, believes higher tax rates play just a small role in resolving the nation's budget woes.
"In the long term [Obama] is going to need to raise taxes on more than just the rich," Burman says in an interview with The Daily Ticker. "The budget problem isn't going to be solved without broader-based tax increases, preferably done in the context of tax reform and also serious entitlement reform. We're not going to be able to solve this on the tax side alone."
Burman, who recently co-wrote the new book "Taxes in America: What Everyone Needs to Know," says tax rates do not need to be raised for any income group if Congress and the White House would agree on one simple change: raising the capital gains rate, i.e. the profits from the sale of an investment. Assets, such as stocks, art or real estate, that are held for at least a year are currently taxed at a special 15% rate; Obama wants to raise that to 20%.
"The problem with a low tax rate on capital gains is not that it allows Mitt Romney and Warren Buffett to pay very low taxes but that it creates this huge opportunity for tax sheltering," he notes. "There's a whole industry that's devoted to coming up with these schemes. [Raising capital gains rates] could make the tax system more progressive and allow for lower tax rates" and a reduction in the deficit Burman says.
Obama's tax proposal also targets the Alternative Minimum Tax, the Estate Tax and as well as many personal tax credits and itemized deductions. Obama would make permanent the 2007 AMT patch and index it for inflation. He would raise the estate tax to 45% from 35% on estates worth more than $3.5 million. He would lower the corporate tax rate to 28% from 35% and provide a refundable $3,000 credit per added employee for companies that expand their workforce. He would tax carried interest as ordinary income.
Related: Corporate Tax Loopholes=Corporate Socialism: Pulitzer Prize Winner David Cay Johnston
A divided Congress refused to compromise with Obama during his first term and could very well dismiss the president's tax reforms for the next four years. Republicans are loathe to raise taxes by even a penny and Obama has said he would veto any budget bills that did not include tax increases. Neither party wants to raise taxes in a weak economy. But the options available for reducing the deficit and generating new revenue are few and far between.

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Wall Street sinks after election as "fiscal cliff" eyed

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Dow industrials lost more than 300 points in a sell-off on Wednesday that drove all major stock indexes down over 2 percent in the wake of the presidential election as investors' focus shifted to the looming "fiscal cliff" debate and Europe's economic troubles.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index posted its biggest daily percentage drop since June, with all 10 S&P sectors solidly lower and about 80 percent of stocks on both the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq ending in negative territory. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 closed at their lowest levels since early August.
Financial stocks and energy shares, two sectors that could face increased regulation after President Barack Obama's re-election, were the weakest on the day. The S&P financial index (.GSPF) lost 3.5 percent, while the S&P energy index (REU:^GSPEI) fell 3.1 percent. An S&P index of technology shares (.GSPT) slid 2.8 percent as the stock of Apple Inc (AAPL) entered bear market territory.
Obama's victory had been anticipated, though many polls indicated a close race between the president and Mitt Romney, his Republican challenger, going into election day.
The election was considered a major source of uncertainty for the market, but now the focus turns to the fiscal cliff, with investors worrying that if no deal is reached over some $600 billion in spending cuts and tax increases due to kick in early next year, it could derail the economic recovery.
The Republican Party retained control of the U.S. House of Representatives, while the Senate remained under Democratic control.
David Joy, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial in Boston, said this kind of divided government was disappointing "since that configuration has resulted in gridlock and there's no clear path towards unlocking that.
"It holds implications for how quickly we resolve the fiscal cliff issue, or whether it gets resolved at all," said Joy, who helps oversee $571 billion in assets.
The market's losses were broad, with pessimism exacerbated by overseas concerns after the European Commission said the region would barely grow next year, dashing hopes for improvement in the short term.
Still, some viewed the day's slide as a buying opportunity, saying it was unlikely that no deal would be reached on the fiscal cliff and arguing that Europe's troubles were already priced into markets.
"There's no question that Europe is lagging the rest of the developed and emerging world, but stocks will find a base soon, when investors start seeing through some of the smoke over the region and cliff," said Richard Weiss, who helps oversee about $120 billion in assets as a senior money manager at American Century Investments in Mountain View, California.
The Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI) slid 312.95 points, or 2.36 percent, to close at 12,932.73. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (^GSPC) fell 33.86 points, or 2.37 percent, to 1,394.53. The Nasdaq Composite Index (^IXIC) lost 74.64 points, or 2.48 percent, to close at 2,937.29.
The S&P 500 closed below the key 1,400 level for the first time since August 30, while the Dow ended under 13,000 for the first time since August 2.
About 7.81 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the American Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, slightly below last year's daily average of 7.84 billion, though Wednesday's volume did surpass that of many recent sessions.
Contributing to the Nasdaq's decline, Apple shares fell 3.8 percent to $558, off 20.8 percent from an all-time intraday high of $705.07 set on September 21. That slump puts the stock of the world's most valuable publicly traded company in bear market territory.
Despite Wednesday's sell-off, all three major U.S. stock indexes were still up for the year. At Wednesday's close, the Dow was up 5.9 percent for 2012 so far, while the S&P 500 was up 10.9 percent and the Nasdaq was up 12.8 percent.
Wednesday's plunge was a reversal from Tuesday's rally when voting was under way. Defense and energy shares were among the market leaders that day, causing speculation that some investors were betting on a Romney win.
On Wednesday, an index of defense shares (.DFX) fell 2.9 percent, its biggest one-day drop in a year. Shares of United Technologies (UTX) dropped 2.9 percent to $77.68 while Lockheed Martin (LMT) sank 3.9 percent to $91.15.
Energy shares fell as investors bet that the industry may see increased regulation in Obama's second term, with less access to federal lands and water. Crude oil shed more than 4 percent while an index of coal companies (.DJUSCL) plunged 8.8 percent. Coal firms Peabody Energy (BTU) lost 9.6 percent to $26.24 and Arch Coal (ACI) sank 12.5 percent to $7.58.
Among financials, JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) fell 5.6 percent to $40.46 and Goldman Sachs (GS) dropped 6.6 percent to $117.98.
"The notion that you may have gotten a respite on the financial services side (with regulation) if Romney had been elected is obviously being unwound," said Mike Ryan, chief investment strategist at UBS Wealth Management Americas in New York.
Healthcare stocks were mixed as President Obama's re-election rules out the possibility of a wholesale repeal of his healthcare reform law, though questions remain as to what parts of the domestic policy will be implemented. The S&P health care index (REU:^GSPAI) shed 1.9 percent. In contrast, Tenet Healthcare (THC) was the S&P 500's biggest percentage gainer, up 9.6 percent at $27.34.
In 2008, stocks also rallied on election day, but then fell by the largest margin on record for a day following the vote, with each of the three major U.S. stock indexes posting losses ranging from 5 percent to 5.5 percent.
After the bell, both Qualcomm Inc (QCOM) and Whole Foods Market Inc (WFM) reported results. Qualcom's revenue beat expectations, sending shares up 8 percent to $62.75 in extended trading, while Whole Foods dropped 3.3 percent to $92.75 after the bell. In the regular session, Qualcomm slid 3.7 percent to close at $58.12, while Whole Foods dropped 2.1 percent to $95.93.

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Coal company announces layoffs in response to Obama win

A coal company headed by a prominent Mitt Romney donor has laid off more than 160 workers in response to President Obama's election victory.
Murray Energy said Friday that it had been "forced" to make the layoffs in response to the bleak prospects for the coal industry during Obama's second term. In a prayer circulated by the company, CEO Robert Murray said Americans had voted "in favor of redistribution, national weakness and reduced standard of living and lower and lower levels of personal freedom."
"The American people have made their choice. They have decided that America must change its course, away from the principals of our Founders," Murray said in the prayer, which was delivered in a meeting with staff members earlier this week.
"Lord, please forgive me and anyone with me in Murray Energy Corporation for the decisions that we are now forced to make to preserve the very existence of any of the enterprises that you have helped us build."
Murray cited pending regulations from the Environmental Protection Agency and the possibility of a carbon tax as factors that could lead to the "total destruction of the coal industry by as early as 2030."
In August, Murray shuttered an operation in Ohio, again blaming the Obama Administration and its alleged "war on coal."
Mitt Romney echoed this line on the campaign trail, accusing Obama of undermining the country's energy security.
Administration officials responded to these attacks by affirming that Obama supports "clean coal." They also pointed out that more coal miners were on the job in the U.S. this year than at any time since 1997, and that U.S. coal exports have risen 31%.
Domestically, however, coal production has dropped sharply, falling roughly 15% in 2011 versus years prior, according to the National Mining Association.
But the industry's woes go way beyond Obama's policies.
Utility companies are increasingly ditching coal in favor of cheaper, cleaner natural gas. In addition, the recession and improved energy efficiency have crimped demand for power.
Looking ahead, the coal industry faces a rule going into effect in 2015 that tightens the amount of mercury coal plants can emit, as well as regulations on mountain-top mining. Both will make coal production and coal-fired power plants more expensive.
The rules themselves are not Obama's doing, although he has implemented them fairly quickly. Most stem from the Clean Air Act, which was signed by Richard Nixon and strengthened during the first Bush presidency.
CNNMoney's Steve Hargreaves contributed reporting.

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U.S. to Pass Saudi Arabia in Energy Production, IEA Says: Huge Foreign Policy, Economic Implications

A new report by the International Energy Association says the U.S. will become the world's largest oil producer by 2017, overtaking current leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia. U.S. energy policies initiated by the George W. Bush administration and implemented by President Barack Obama have moved the U.S. toward energy independence and away from Middle East energy sources. U.S. oil production has risen rapidly since 2008 and oil imports are at their lowest level in two decades.
"North America is at the forefront of a sweeping transformation in oil and gas production that will affect all regions of the world, yet the potential also exists for a similarly transformative shift in global energy efficiency," says IEA Executive Director Marian von der Hoeven in a statement.
The IEA also says the U.S. could become self-sufficient in energy by 2035 and a net exporter of natural gas by 2020. The Obama administration's push to develop and grow domestic natural gas capabilities has led to a natural gas drilling boom. Production has jumped 15% in four years but the glut in natural gas supplies have also caused the price of natural gas to plummet. According to the White House, the U.S. holds a 100-year supply of natural gas and domestic production is at an all-time high. The Daily Ticker's Aaron Task and Henry Blodget both agree that the explosion in domestic energy production could alter the geopolitical landscape and U.S. labor market.
"The foreign policy implications are maybe even bigger than the economic ones," says Task.
"For 50 years or more we have been just addicted and coupled to a region of the world where so many people hate us," Blodget adds.
Oil and petroleum imports have fallen an average of more than 1.5 million barrels per day and domestic crude oil production has increased by an average of more than 720,000 barrels per day since 2008. As domestic drilling has expanded so has the number of oil and gas production jobs. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, job growth in these industries has risen 25% since January 2010.
Related: The Fracking Revolution: More Jobs and Cheaper Energy Are Worth the "Manageable" Risks, Yergin Says
President Obama says natural gas production could support 600,000 jobs by the end of the decade. Most of these positions are highly desirable from a financial standpoint. Drilling and support jobs pay about $34.50 an hour, 50% more than the national average according to The New York Times.
Cheap natural gas and the administration's eagerness to expand U.S. energy production has shifted resources away from green energy technologies like solar and wind.
Related: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: Renewable Energy Is Key to U.S. Growth
The method of extracting natural gas from shale rock formations has come under intense scrutiny. Many local cities and communities have already banned the practice. Hydraulic fracturing, more commonly referred to as hydrofracking or fracking, involves injecting large amounts of sand, water and chemicals into the ground at high pressures. Critics of fracking say this process produces millions of gallons of wastewater that contain highly corrosive salts and carcinogens. These radioactive elements could pollute water sources such as rivers and underground aquifers and pose serious dangers to the environment and individuals.

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Nokia to get payments in patent deal with RIM

HELSINKI (Reuters) - Struggling Finnish mobile phone maker Nokia has settled its patent dispute with BlackBerry maker Research in Motion in return for payments, as it tries to exploit its trove of technology patents to boost its finances.
Terms of the agreement were confidential, but Nokia said on Friday it included a one-time payment to be booked in the fourth quarter, as well as ongoing fees, all to be paid by RIM.
Nokia is one of the industry's top patent holders, having invested 45 billion euros ($60 billion) in mobile research and development over the past two decades.
It has been trying to make use of that legacy to ensure its survival, amid a fall in sales as well as cash. The Finnish firm is battling to recover lost ground in the lucrative smartphone market to the likes of Apple and Samsung.
The agreement with RIM settles all existing patent litigation between the two companies, Nokia said, adding similar disputes with HTC Corp and ViewSonic still stood.
"This agreement demonstrates Nokia's industry leading patent portfolio and enables us to focus on further licensing opportunities in the mobile communications market," said Paul Melin, Nokia's chief intellectual property officer.
Nokia has earned around 500 million euros a year from patent royalties in key areas of mobile telephony.
Some analysts have said it could earn hundreds of millions more if it can negotiate with more companies successfully.
Analysts estimated its June 2011 settlement with Apple was worth hundreds of millions of euros.

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HTC brushes off Microsoft’s earlier rejection, will reportedly make Windows RT tablets after all

Microsoft (MSFT) may have barred HTC (2498) from participating in the first wave of Windows RT tablets, but that apparently hasn’t stopped the company from gearing up for the next wave. Unnamed sources have told Bloomberg that HTC “is working on a 12-inch device and a 7-inch version” of a Windows RT tablet “that can also make phone calls.” The planned seven-inch tablet, which will be unveiled alongside the 12-inch tablet some time in 2013, will be the first small Windows RT tablet to hit the market and go head-to-head with other popular small tablets such as the Google (GOOG) Nexus 7 and the iPad mini.

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RIM shares fall at the open after earnings

TORONTO (Reuters) - Research In Motion Ltd fell in early trading on Friday following the BlackBerry maker's Thursday earnings announcement, when the company outlined plans to change the way it charges for services.
RIM, pushing to revive its fortunes with the launch of its new BlackBerry 10 devices next month, surprised investors when it said it plans to alter its service revenue model, a move that could put the high-margin business under pressure.
Shares fell 16.0 percent to $11.86 in early trading on the Nasdaq. Toronto-listed shares fell 15.8 percent to C$11.74.

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Investors shed shares of Blackberry maker

NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Blackberry maker Research in Motion slumped more than 16 percent Friday with future revenue coming into question and a declining number of subscribers.
RIM's stock jumped initially Thursday when the Canadian company released better-than-expected third-quarter results and a stronger cash position.
Shares reversed course during a conference call later, when executives said that the company won't generate as much revenue from telecommunications carriers once it releases the new BlackBerry 10.
RIM's stock had been on a three-month rally in which the stock more than doubled from levels not previously seen since 2003.
"Despite a solid quarter, the stock is trading down due to the introduction of a lower enterprise service tier and fears that RIM will not receive monthly services revenues for consumer BB10 subscribers," said Jefferies analyst Peter Misek. He thinks RIM has offered carriers a lower-priced option in exchange for a bigger purchase commitment for the new device. He kept his "Hold" rating.
Sterne Agee analyst Shaw Wu kept maintained a "Neutral" rating on the stock, but lowered his earnings estimates, saying he continued to be concerned about RIM's ability to compete with Apple and Google.

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